COP Explainer: UNFCCC COP26

What really happened and what the media got wrong

There have been a lot of news stories about COP26, some more accurate than others! Here are our answers to some of the most important questions coming out of the meeting.

What is the Glasgow Climate Pact?

The Glasgow Climate Pact is a set of decisions of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Meeting of the Parties of the Paris Agreement.  It is not a new international agreement: it will not have to be ratified by countries and it does not carry the same legal weight.  Instead, it represents decisions by the Parties on implementation of the legally binding obligations contained in the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement.

Have countries agreed on new mitigation targets?

Short answer: no.  The Pact recognizes that limiting global temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels will require achieving net zero emissions by around 2050, and reducing emissions by 45% by 2030 relative to the 2010 level.  It also notes that we are not currently on track to meet this goal: if all current commitments are met, 2030 emissions will be 13.7% higher than the 2010 level.  The Pact therefore urges Parties that have not yet done so to communicate new or updated nationally determined contributions as soon as possible, and requests all Parties to strengthen the targets in their NDCs by the end of 2022.  The language here is important: “requests” does not indicate a legally binding commitment or a decision to take action, but a nonbinding ask, which countries may legally ignore, albeit with possible political or diplomatic consequences.

What about emissions from developing countries, like India and China?

One of the biggest issues in the climate negotiations centers around the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities” codified in article 3 of the UNFCCC.  This captures the idea that developed countries are both more responsible for climate change and more capable of taking action, while developing countries have contributed lower emissions historically and have not had a chance to benefit from the rapid economic and technological growth facilitated by burning fossil fuels.  On the other hand, developing countries are rapidly becoming significant emitters, and avoiding imminent catastrophe will require all sides to do their part.  

One answer is the development of long term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies, provided in article 4 of the Paris Agreement.  The Glasgow Pact urges Parties that have not yet done so to communicate such strategies that could lead to net zero emissions by around 2050, taking into account national circumstances.  Again, no binding obligations were established.

Did countries agree to new financial commitments?

Not really.  At COP15 in 2009, developed countries committed to mobilize a total of 100 billion USD per year by 2020 to support climate action.  This target was not met.  In Glasgow, Parties emphasized the need to increase financial support for developing countries beyond the 100 billion USD per year, while urging developed country Parties to deliver on the 100 billion USD as a matter of urgency.  Parties also established a workplan for determining a new collective climate finance goal. 

What is the Global Methane Pledge?

The Global Methane Pledge is a commitment to a collective goal to reduce global methane emissions by at least 30% from 2020 levels by 2030.  Jointly launched by the United States and the European Union on November 2, the pledge has over 100 participants, including the UK, Brazil and Canada, and representing just under 50% of global anthropogenic methane emissions.  The pledge is important because methane is an extremely potent greenhouse gas accounting for around 14% of global GHG emissions.  However, the wording of the pledge---particularly the “collective goal” rather than individual targets---raises questions about implementation.  The pledge is not legally binding, and all actions under its scope are voluntary.  Moreover, actions that a country takes to reduce methane under the pledge can also be counted towards its own nationally determined contributions, so it may not result in additional reductions beyond those already agreed.  Possibly the most significant aspect of the pledge is financial.  The European Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the Green Climate Fund have committed to finance projects to implement the pledge, and a network of philanthropies have pledged over 300 million USD to support methane mitigation.  

Is there a new agreement to end deforestation?

Well, there is a commitment to end forest loss by 2030, but it is not new.  The Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration on Forests and Land Use represents a commitment by over 140 countries to halt forest loss by 2030.  But this is not the first time countries have made such a commitment.  In 2014, at the UN Climate Summit in New York, governments and other stakeholders adopted the New York Declaration on Forests, which committed to ending deforestation by 2030, and halving it by 2020.  The SDGs are even more ambitious: target 15.2 includes halting deforestation by 2020.  Spoiler alert: neither of these goals have been met.  It remains to be seen whether the Glasgow Declaration fares better than previous commitments, but its high profile and the accompanying commitment to increase finance and investment may at least give some hope.

What else happened that I should know about?

The Parties to the Paris Agreement (PA) also adopted the “Glasgow–Sharm el-Sheikh work programme on the global goal on adaptation”.  Such a goal is established in Art. 7 of the PA and it refers to enhancing peoples’ and ecosystems’ capacities to adapt to climate change, strengthening their resilience and ensuring an adequate response to global warming. This means that while we take action to mitigate climate change, we still have to adopt adequate measures to adapt to the effects of the current and future temperature increase. This goal seems vague, difficult to implement and to assess. So, the Glasgow–Sharm el-Sheikh work programme aims to “enhance understanding of the global goal on adaptation, including of the methodologies, indicators, data and metrics, needs and support needed for assessing progress towards it”,  to contribute to reviewing the overall progress made in achieving the global goal on adaptation as part of the global stocktake and to provide support to the Parties to implement assess their adaptation plans, assess their progress on adaptation and communicate it effectively to the Secretariat.

So … what was the point?

COP26 has received more media attention than any previous Climate COP, much of it exaggerated.  But that amount of attention is something in itself.  It shows that the public cares about climate change, and may be willing to take personal and political action to fight it.  The decisions and pledges adopted during COP26 may be nonbinding, but they have created expectations in the minds of people around the world, and hopefully they will keep paying attention and putting pressure on governments and private actors to see that these goals are met.